So How Did I Do?

Rubbish actually. I think I’ll avoid football punditry and stick to programming.

My predictions were:

  • Sunderland 0 – 2 Chelsea
  • Hull 1 – 1 Man United
  • Aston Villa 2 – 3 Newcastle

Actual results were:

  • Sunderland 2 – 3 Chelsea
  • Hull 0 – 1 Man United
  • Aston Villa 1 – 0 Newcastle

I also predicted the Villa / Mags match would be a cracker and by all accounts it seems to have been crap.

It’s also good that I’m not a betting man, because Chelsea for a win was 19/20. I think that means that if I’d put a fiver on each of my predictions, I would have shelled out £15, and won back £9.75. Net loss of £5.25.

It does, however, mean that both the Mags and Boro are down. That’s worth a fiver of my money any day.

All Bets Are On!

No sooner had I posted my theory on the end of the 2009 season, than I thought about looking at the bookies’ theories on who will go down. Firstly, the odds for each match according to William Hill at the time of writing:

Sunderland v Chelsea

I predicted 0-2.

  • Home win – 9/4
  • Draw – 23/10
  • Away win – 19/20

I think 23/10 for a draw and 9/4 for a home win are mostly there to draw in some optimistic Sunderland fans, but the safe money is obviously with the Blues.

Hull v Man United

I predicted 1-1.

  • Home win – 13/8
  • Draw – 12/5
  • Away win – 6/5

William Hill are sticking with the champions ending in style, but they aren’t offering great odds on a draw either. I don’t think

Aston Villa v Newcastle

I predicted 2-3.

  • Home win – 6/5
  • Draw – 12/5
  • Away win – 13/8

Very little faith with the fat Geordie barcodes there, offering the same odds as the Hull match in favour of the top team.

Overall

To finish in the bottom 3, the following odds are being offered:

  • Middlesbrough – 1/100
  • Newcastle – 4/7
  • Hull – 13/8
  • Sunderland – 8/1

Now if I’m reading that right, the bookies are thinking the table will stay as-is. Sunderland and Hull to survive; Newcastle to go down.

Watch this space.

End of the Season

It’s the end of the season and again Sunderland are wondering what’s going to happen on the last day. 90 minutes next Sunday will determine whether we’re playing Liverpool or Leicester next season. So what do I think?

Here’s the table as it stands:

Position Team Played GD PTS
15 Blackburn 37 -20 40
16 Sunderland 37 -19 36
17 Hull 37 -24 35
18 Newcastle 37 -18 34
19 Middlesbrough 37 -28 32
20 West Brom 37 -31 31

Mathematically speaking, Blackburn are now clear and West Brom are now relegated. So what about the rest? Well here’s the fixtures still to be played.

  • Sunderland v Chelsea
  • Hull v Man United
  • Aston Villa v Newcastle
  • West Ham v Middlesbrough

Realistically speaking, Middlesbrough are also down. In their situation even Steve McQueen would have thrown in the towel by now. For their survival it would need them to win by 5 goals, and hope that both Hull and Newcastle would fail to get a point between them. I think they will actually get beat anyhow: 2-0.

So now we’ve narrowed it to one down from Sunderland, Hull, or Newcastle.

For the Sunderland match, I’d be surprised if we kept it to just 2-0. No points there.

With Hull at home to Man United there’s a chance Hull could nick a point. With Man U having freshly claimed the title and possibly putting out their reserves, there’s a good chance Hull could manage 1-1.

The final match of the trio is Aston Villa v Newcastle, which I think will be a cracking match. Villa have nothing to lose and can claim 5th spot if Everton lose away to Fulham. The Mags obviously have nothing to lose either and will be fighting (quite possibly literally) for the match. My prediction is 2-3.

So where does that put the table according to my predictions?

Position Team Played GD PTS
16 Newcastle 38 -17 37
17 Sunderland 38 -21 36
18 Hull 38 -24 36
19 Middlesbrough 38 -30 32
20 West Brom 38 xx xx

I said to my Dad about four weeks ago that this season you would be able to survive on 36 points and goal difference / 37 points outright. I’ll post back here with the actual results to see if I’m right…